Daily Junction.mobi portal<p><strong>1. Identify the investments and countries most at risk.</strong> Countries that rely heavily on monsoon rainfall, fisheries, or have major investments along the Atlantic coast may be especially exposed, as are countries with limited ability to respond to surprises.</p>
<p><strong>2. Stress-test key investments.</strong> This means using computer simulations with Amoc-collapse scenarios to check whether these investments would still achieve their intended purpose under very different conditions, such as changes in temperature, sea level or rainfall. </p>
<p><strong>3. Favour flexible solutions.</strong> Choose investments that can be adapted or expanded as conditions change, such as infrastructure projects that are built in stages or are easily upgradeable, or wide diversity of water supply or coastal defence options.</p>
<p><strong>4. Use Amoc monitoring to inform adaptation decisions.</strong> Sustained <a href="https://theconversation.com/ocean-monitoring-is-in-trouble-without-the-us-its-up-to-europe-and-asia-to-avoid-losing-sight-of-the-worlds-deep-sea-ecosystems-283297">funding for ocean monitoring</a> is needed to track changes in ocean circulation, but governments should also regularly reassess whether their adaptation investments remain effective as our knowledge of Atlantic currents evolves.</p>
<p><strong>5. Reassess global climate projections.</strong> Explore the implications of major Amoc weakening or collapse for global climate projections, including estimates of future warming. The Amoc influences <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03427-w">how much carbon the oceans absorb from the atmosphere</a>, so changes in its circulation could affect both how countries adapt to climate changes and how much further warming they need to prepare for.</p>
<p>These actions do not require predicting whether or when the Amoc will collapse, and should not take attention or resources away from responding to heatwaves, droughts, floods and other impacts of climate change that already happening. Efforts to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions remain crucial.</p>
<p>What countries can do is start testing long-term investments against scenarios involving major Amoc weakening, helping to ensure that infrastructure, water supplies and other adaptations remain effective in all plausible futures.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/295234/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brenden-jongman-2772417">Brenden Jongman</a>, Honorary Research Associate, Environmental Change Institute, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-oxford-1260">University of Oxford</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jim-hall-2774428">Jim Hall</a>, Professor of Climate and Environmental Risk, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-oxford-1260">University of Oxford</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/key-atlantic-currents-could-collapse-this-century-but-the-risk-is-missing-from-almost-all-national-climate-plans-new-study-295234">original article</a>.</p> </div>