Daily Junction.mobi portalNews · January 15, 2025 · Daily Junction Editorial Team · 9 min
The Bank of England has begun cutting interest rates after holding them at 5.25% for over a year. Here's what falling rates mean for mortgage holders, savers, borrowers, and the wider UK economy in 2025.
The Bank of England has entered a new phase of monetary policy, cutting interest rates for the first time in over four years in November 2024 and signalling further reductions ahead. After raising the base rate 14 consecutive times from 0.1% in December 2021 to a 16-year high of 5.25% in August 2023, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) finally reversed course, cutting to 4.75% in November 2024. With inflation falling toward the 2% target and economic growth stalling, markets expect the base rate to decline to around 3.5-4% by the end of 2025. But what do these rate cuts mean for your mortgage, savings, loans, and the wider economy? Here is everything you need to know about the Bank of England's interest rate outlook for 2025 and how to protect your finances.
The Bank of England's primary mandate is to keep inflation at 2%. Between 2021 and 2023, inflation surged to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022, driven by post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, soaring energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and a tight labour market pushing up wages. To bring inflation under control, the BoE raised interest rates aggressively, making borrowing more expensive and encouraging saving, which reduces consumer spending and cools the economy.
By late 2024, the strategy had worked. Inflation fell to 2.6% in November 2024, down from over 10% a year earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). With inflation approaching the 2% target and economic growth stagnant—GDP grew just 0.1% in Q3 2024—the BoE judged it was safe to begin cutting rates to support the economy without reigniting inflation.
However, the MPC remains cautious. Core inflation (excluding volatile energy and food prices) stood at 3.3% in November 2024, still above target, and wage growth remains elevated at around 5%, according to ONS data. This means the BoE is likely to cut rates gradually rather than aggressively, to avoid triggering a resurgence in inflation.
If you have a variable-rate mortgage (such as a standard variable rate or SVR) or a tracker mortgage (which follows the base rate), you will see immediate savings when the Bank of England cuts rates.
For example, if you have a £200,000 mortgage on a 25-year term at 6.5% (typical SVR in late 2024), your monthly payment is around £1,350. If your lender passes on a 0.5% rate cut in full, reducing your rate to 6%, your payment falls to around £1,290—a saving of £60 per month or £720 per year.
Tracker mortgages are contractually required to follow base rate changes, so you are guaranteed to benefit. However, lenders are not obliged to pass on base rate cuts to SVR customers in full or immediately, so check your lender's policy.
If you are on a fixed-rate mortgage, your rate is locked in until the end of your fixed term, so you won't benefit from rate cuts immediately. However, when your fixed term ends, you should be able to remortgage to a lower rate than is currently available.
As of January 2025, the average two-year fixed-rate mortgage is around 5.5%, and the average five-year fix is around 5.2%, according to Moneyfacts. If the base rate falls to 3.5-4% by the end of 2025 as expected, fixed-rate deals could fall to around 4-4.5% by late 2025 or early 2026.
If your fixed term is ending soon, compare deals now. Mortgage rates are priced based on swap rates (the cost to lenders of borrowing money in financial markets), which reflect expectations of future base rate cuts. This means lenders have already factored in expected rate reductions, so waiting for further cuts may not result in significantly better deals.
This is the key question for anyone remortgaging in 2025. The answer depends on your risk tolerance and financial situation:
Most experts recommend fixing for at least two years if you are stretching affordability, as the certainty is worth the potential cost of missing out on further rate cuts.
If you have money in an easy-access savings account or a notice account with a variable rate, your interest rate will fall when the Bank of England cuts the base rate. Banks typically reduce variable savings rates within weeks of a base rate cut, and they often don't pass on the full reduction.
For example, if you have £10,000 in an easy-access account paying 4.5% (typical in late 2024), you earn £450 per year in interest. If the bank cuts your rate to 4% following a 0.5% base rate reduction, your annual interest falls to £400—a loss of £50 per year.
To protect your returns, consider switching to a fixed-rate savings bond or fixed-rate ISA before further rate cuts. As of January 2025, the best one-year fixed bonds pay around 4.8%, and the best two-year bonds pay around 4.5%, according to Savings Champion. Locking in now guarantees your rate even if the base rate falls further.
However, fixed-rate accounts don't allow withdrawals without penalties, so only lock in money you won't need during the fixed term.
Cash ISAs work the same way as regular savings accounts but are tax-free. The ISA allowance for 2024-25 is £20,000, meaning you can save up to £20,000 per year without paying tax on the interest.
If you are a higher-rate (40%) or additional-rate (45%) taxpayer, ISAs are particularly valuable because you don't pay tax on interest. For example, if you earn £1,000 in interest on a non-ISA account and pay 40% tax, you keep only £600. In an ISA, you keep the full £1,000.
With rate cuts expected, consider maximising your ISA allowance before the end of the tax year (5 April 2025) by locking into a fixed-rate cash ISA at current rates.
Unlike mortgages, personal loan and credit card rates are less directly linked to the Bank of England base rate. Lenders price these products based on risk, competition, and profit margins, so rate cuts may not translate into significantly lower borrowing costs.
As of January 2025, the average personal loan APR is around 8-10%, and the average credit card APR is around 25-30%, according to Moneyfacts. Even if the base rate falls to 3.5%, personal loan rates are unlikely to drop below 6-7%, and credit card rates rarely fall below 20%.
If you have existing debt, focus on paying it down rather than waiting for rate cuts. Consider switching to a 0% balance transfer credit card (if you have good credit) to avoid interest while you pay off the balance.
Car finance rates (such as hire purchase and PCP deals) are more responsive to base rate changes than credit cards but less responsive than mortgages. If the base rate falls by 1%, car finance APRs might fall by 0.5-0.75%.
If you are planning to buy a car on finance in 2025, wait until mid-year if possible, as rates should be lower by then. Alternatively, save a larger deposit to reduce the amount you need to borrow.
Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which should support economic growth. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts UK GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025, up from 0.8% in 2024, partly due to expected rate cuts.
However, the impact may be limited. Many households are on fixed-rate mortgages and won't benefit until their deals end, and businesses remain cautious about investing due to uncertainty over tax policy and global trade.
Lower mortgage rates should support the housing market, which has been subdued since rates began rising in 2021. The average UK house price fell by around 5% in real terms between mid-2022 and mid-2024, according to Nationwide.
Estate agents expect a modest recovery in 2025, with prices rising by 2-3% as affordability improves. However, high house prices relative to incomes and stricter mortgage affordability tests will limit the recovery.
The Bank of England's biggest challenge is cutting rates without reigniting inflation. If rates fall too quickly, consumer spending could surge, pushing prices back up. This is why the MPC is expected to cut gradually—by 0.25% per meeting—rather than aggressively.
The BoE will watch wage growth closely. If wages continue rising at 5% while productivity growth remains weak, inflation could stay above target, forcing the BoE to pause or reverse rate cuts.
The Bank of England cut the base rate to 4.75% in November 2024 and is expected to make further cuts in 2025 as inflation falls toward the 2% target. Mortgage holders on variable and tracker rates will see immediate payment reductions, while fixed-rate holders must wait until their deal ends. Savers will see returns on easy-access accounts fall, but fixed-rate bonds locked in at higher rates will maintain their returns. The BoE must balance supporting economic growth with ensuring inflation remains under control. Markets expect the base rate to fall to around 3.5-4% by the end of 2025.
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