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Rape Conviction Rates at Record Low: Why Only 1.6% of Reported Rapes Lead to Prosecution

News · January 19, 2025 · Daily Junction Editorial Team · 11 min

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Only 1.6% of rapes reported to police in England and Wales result in a charge, down from 7.7% in 2016. Victims face intrusive digital evidence requests, years-long waits for trial, and hostile cross-examination, leading many to drop out of the process.

The criminal justice system in England and Wales is failing rape victims on a catastrophic scale. In 2024, 68,000 rapes were reported to police, but only 1,090 resulted in a charge—a charge rate of just 1.6%, according to Crown Prosecution Service data. This is down from 7.7% in 2016, despite repeated government promises to improve rape prosecutions. Victims face intrusive digital evidence requests (handing over phones and social media), waits of up to 3 years for trial, and hostile cross-examination about their sexual history and mental health. Many drop out of the process, exhausted and traumatised. Only 16% of rape victims report to police in the first place, meaning the true scale of rape in England and Wales is estimated at 425,000 per year. Here is everything you need to know about the rape prosecution crisis: why charge rates have collapsed, what victims face when they report, and what needs to change.

The Scale of the Crisis

Rape is defined as penetration of the vagina, anus, or mouth with a penis without consent. The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows:

• 68,000 rapes reported to police in year ending September 2024
• 1,090 charges (1.6% charge rate)
• 620 convictions (0.9% conviction rate based on reports, or 57% conviction rate based on charges that go to trial)
• Only 16% of rape victims report to police, according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales, meaning the true scale is estimated at 425,000 rapes per year

The charge rate has collapsed over the past decade:

This means that despite a 66% increase in reports since 2016, the number of charges has fallen by 65%. The system is processing more reports but prosecuting far fewer cases.

Why Charge Rates Have Collapsed

The collapse in rape prosecutions is the result of multiple systemic failures:

1. CPS Risk-Aversion and 'Cherry-Picking'

The Crown Prosecution Service has become increasingly risk-averse, only charging cases it believes have a very high chance of conviction. This is driven by:

• Pressure to improve conviction rates: The CPS is judged on conviction rates (percentage of cases that result in conviction once charged), creating an incentive to drop difficult cases and only charge 'slam dunk' cases.
• 'Bookmakers' test: Internal CPS guidance reportedly instructs prosecutors to only charge cases where conviction is 'more likely than not' (over 50% chance). In practice, this has been interpreted as requiring a much higher threshold—some prosecutors only charge cases they believe have an 80-90% chance of conviction.
• Dropping 'he said, she said' cases: Rape cases often come down to the victim's word against the accused's, with no independent witnesses or forensic evidence. The CPS has been accused of systematically dropping these cases, even when the victim is credible and consistent, because they are seen as too risky.

The Victims' Commissioner and End Violence Against Women Coalition have accused the CPS of 'cherry-picking' easy cases and abandoning victims in difficult cases, effectively decriminalising rape.

2. Intrusive Digital Evidence Requests

Police routinely ask rape victims to hand over their phones, computers, and social media accounts for examination. This practice, known as a 'digital strip search', involves:

• Downloading entire phone contents: Police use technology to extract all messages, photos, emails, and app data from the victim's phone, going back years.
• Searching for 'undermining' evidence: Police look for anything that might undermine the victim's credibility, such as messages with the accused, sexual history, mental health issues, or inconsistencies in their account.
• Consent forms: Victims are asked to sign consent forms allowing police to access their medical records, therapy notes, and social media accounts. Refusal to sign is often treated as non-cooperation, and the case is dropped.

The Victims' Commissioner found that 30% of rape victims withdraw after being asked for digital evidence, either because they feel it is an invasion of privacy or because they fear their personal information will be used against them in court.

The practice has been heavily criticised:

• Disproportionate: Victims' groups argue that no other crime requires victims to hand over their entire digital life. Burglary victims are not asked to hand over their phones; why should rape victims?
• Traumatising: Many victims have private information on their phones (e.g., messages about mental health, other relationships, family issues) that they do not want disclosed.
• Deterrent to reporting: The knowledge that reporting rape means handing over your phone deters many victims from reporting in the first place.

Police and prosecutors argue that digital evidence is necessary to build a strong case and to comply with disclosure rules (the defence is entitled to any evidence that might undermine the prosecution case). However, the Information Commissioner's Office has ruled that blanket requests for digital evidence are unlawful and disproportionate, and police should only request specific, relevant information.

3. Court Backlogs and Delays

The average time from report to trial in rape cases is 3 years, according to HM Courts & Tribunals Service data. This is due to:

• Crown court backlog: The backlog stands at 67,000 cases, with rape cases often deprioritised in favour of cases involving defendants in custody.
• Complexity: Rape cases are complex and require specialist judges, prosecutors, and defence lawyers, all of whom are in short supply.
• Multiple adjournments: Cases are often adjourned multiple times due to lack of court time, unavailability of lawyers, or missing evidence.

The impact on victims is severe:

• Prolonged trauma: Victims are left in limbo for years, unable to move on with their lives while the case is pending.
• Memory fades: The longer the delay, the harder it is for victims to remember details, which can undermine their credibility in court.
• Victims drop out: Many victims withdraw after years of waiting, exhausted and traumatised by the process.

4. Hostile Cross-Examination and Rape Myths

When rape cases do go to trial, victims face hostile cross-examination by defence lawyers, often involving:

• Sexual history: Despite legal restrictions, defence lawyers routinely ask about the victim's sexual history, previous relationships, and clothing, implying that the victim consented or is not credible.
• Mental health: Victims' mental health records are used to suggest they are unreliable or fabricating the allegation.
• Victim-blaming: Defence lawyers ask why the victim did not scream, fight back, or report immediately, perpetuating myths about how 'real' rape victims behave.

Research shows that juries are influenced by rape myths—false beliefs about rape, such as:

• 'Real' rape involves a stranger and violence: In reality, 90% of rapes are committed by someone known to the victim, and many involve coercion or threats rather than physical force.
• Victims should report immediately: Many victims do not report for days, weeks, or years due to trauma, shame, or fear.
• Victims who were drinking or flirting consented: Consent must be freely given and can be withdrawn at any time; being drunk or flirting does not imply consent.

Judges are supposed to direct juries to disregard rape myths, but research shows these directions are often ineffective.

5. Police Under-Resourcing

Rape investigations are complex and time-consuming, requiring specialist training and resources. However:

• Fewer specialist officers: The number of specialist rape investigation officers has fallen by 20% since 2010 due to budget cuts.
• High caseloads: Rape investigators often handle 30-40 cases at a time, making it impossible to give each case the attention it needs.
• Poor investigation: Victims report that police fail to gather evidence (e.g., CCTV, witness statements, forensic evidence), rely too heavily on the victim's testimony, and do not challenge the accused's account.

HM Inspectorate of Constabulary found that rape investigations are of poor quality in many police forces, with officers failing to follow basic investigative procedures.

The Impact on Victims

The failure to prosecute rape has devastating consequences for victims:

1. Trauma and Mental Health

Rape is one of the most traumatic crimes, and the criminal justice process compounds the trauma:

• PTSD, anxiety, depression: Rape victims experience high rates of mental health problems, which are worsened by the stress of the investigation and trial.
• Suicide: Rape victims are at high risk of suicide, particularly when they feel the justice system has failed them.
• Re-traumatisation: Victims describe the criminal justice process as 'being raped all over again'—intrusive questions, disbelief, and victim-blaming cause further harm.

2. Loss of Trust in the Justice System

Victims who report rape and see no action lose trust in the system:

• Less likely to report: Victims who have had a bad experience with police or courts are less likely to report future sexual violence, leaving perpetrators free to continue offending.
• Isolation: The failure of the justice system reinforces the perpetrator's narrative that no one will believe the victim, increasing their isolation and shame.

3. Perpetrators Go Free

When rapists are not prosecuted, they remain free to offend again:

• Serial offending: Research shows that most rapists are serial offenders, committing an average of 6 rapes each. When the justice system fails to prosecute, these offenders continue to harm others.
• Impunity: The low charge rate sends a message that rape is effectively decriminalised, emboldening perpetrators.

What the Government Has Promised