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Nationalist parties, meanwhile, support the framework but for different reasons—they see it as maintaining the all-island economy and keeping the door open to eventual Irish reunification. This makes cross-community consensus difficult.

The UK Government's position is that the Windsor Framework is settled and will not be reopened. The EU has said the same. But if a future UK government decides to prioritise unionist concerns over economic pragmatism, or if the EU decides NI is exploiting the arrangement unfairly, the settlement could be revisited.

The bottom line

The Northern Ireland Protocol, in its Windsor Framework form, is a rare example of a Brexit outcome that is working better than expected. It has created a unique economic position that businesses are exploiting, investment is flowing, and trade is growing faster than the UK average.

This does not resolve the constitutional questions that unionist politicians raise, and it does not eliminate the bureaucracy that businesses complain about. But it does show that the doom-laden predictions of economic collapse were wrong.

Northern Ireland has stumbled into a competitive advantage that the rest of post-Brexit Britain can only envy: access to both the UK and EU markets without having to choose. Whether this lasts depends on politics, not economics. But for now, while politicians argue, businesses are quietly getting on with making it work. And the data suggests they are succeeding.

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