- Create its own military (Scotland has no army, navy, or air force — it relies on UK armed forces)
- Negotiate share of UK military assets (ships, aircraft, bases)
- Apply to join NATO (not automatic, requires unanimous approval from 32 members)
- Remove Trident nuclear submarines from Faslane (SNP policy) — the UK would need to relocate them to England (cost: £20-30 billion)
4. Pensions and benefits
Scotland would need to:
- Take over UK state pensions for Scottish residents (cost: £10 billion per year)
- Create its own benefits system (Universal Credit, disability benefits, child benefit)
- Negotiate share of UK assets and liabilities (e.g., who pays pensions for Scots who worked in England?)
Public Opinion: What Do Scots Want?
Priorities
Polls show Scots' top priorities are:
- NHS (waiting times, staffing, funding)
- Cost of living (inflation, energy bills, wages)
- Public services (education, transport, housing)
- Independence (ranks 4th-5th)
Independence is important to SNP voters, but most Scots prioritise bread-and-butter issues over constitutional change.
Trust
Polls show:
- Trust in UK government: 25% (low)
- Trust in Scottish government: 35% (higher than UK, but falling)
- Trust in SNP to deliver independence: 40% (falling after Sturgeon crisis)
The SNP's crisis (Sturgeon arrested, membership collapsed, poor record on NHS/education) has damaged trust in the party and the independence cause.
The Bottom Line
There will not be another Scottish independence referendum before 2029 at the earliest. Labour won the 2024 election and has ruled out granting indyref2 for the entire Parliament. The UK Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that Scotland cannot hold a referendum without Westminster consent, giving the UK government legal power to block indyref2 indefinitely. The SNP lost 39 seats in 2024 (down from 48 to 9 MPs), ending their claim to a mandate for indyref2.
Support for independence has been stuck at 45-48% since 2014, with no sustained majority for Yes in 10 years. Scotland's fiscal deficit (9% of GDP, £36 billion) makes independence economically painful, requiring tax rises or spending cuts. Brexit has made independence harder (Scotland would need to rejoin EU, creating a hard border with England). And the SNP's crisis (Sturgeon arrested, membership collapsed) has damaged the independence cause.
Even if SNP wins the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, Labour will refuse to grant indyref2. Expect indyref2 in the 2030s at the earliest, if ever — and if it happens, polls suggest Scotland would vote No again, killing independence for a generation. The 2014 referendum was supposed to settle the issue "once in a generation" — and despite Brexit, COVID, and a decade of SNP campaigning, it has.
Key takeaways
- SNP lost 39 seats in 2024 election (down from 48 to 9 MPs) ending their claim to a mandate for indyref2, while Labour won 37 Scottish seats
- Support for independence has been stuck at 45-48% since 2014 referendum (Yes 45%, No 55%), with no sustained majority for independence in 10 years
- UK government has legal power to block indyref2 (Supreme Court ruled 2022) and Labour has ruled out granting one for entire Parliament (until 2029 minimum)
- Scotland's fiscal deficit is 9% of GDP (£36 billion, 2023-24) funded by UK transfers, making independence economically painful without major tax rises or spending cuts
- SNP faces crisis: Nicola Sturgeon arrested (fraud investigation), membership collapsed 50% (103,000 in 2023), and voters prioritise NHS/cost of living over independence
Sources
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