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The SNP and Scottish Independence: From 2014 Referendum to Current Crisis

Politics · September 18, 2025 · Sarah Mitchell · 8 min

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The Scottish National Party dominated Scottish politics for a decade after the 2014 independence referendum, but scandals, leadership chaos, and electoral decline have thrown the independence movement into crisis. Here's what happened and what comes next.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) has been the dominant force in Scottish politics for over a decade, transforming from a fringe independence movement into a governing party that won every election in Scotland from 2015 to 2021. But the past two years have seen a dramatic collapse: Nicola Sturgeon's sudden resignation, a police investigation into party finances, membership losses, and a catastrophic 2024 election that saw the SNP lose 39 Westminster seats. The independence movement that seemed unstoppable after the 2014 referendum is now in crisis, with no clear path to a second referendum and deep divisions over strategy and leadership. Here's how the SNP rose, why it fell, and what the future holds for Scottish independence.

The 2014 Referendum: The High-Water Mark That Wasn't

The 2014 Scottish independence referendum (18 September 2014) was supposed to settle the question "for a generation":

The result

• No: 55.3% (2,001,926 votes)
• Yes: 44.7% (1,617,989 votes)
• Turnout: 84.6% (the highest for any UK election or referendum)

Why No won

The Better Together campaign (Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems) focused on economic risks:

• Currency: What currency would an independent Scotland use? The UK government ruled out a currency union, leaving uncertainty
• EU membership: Would Scotland have to reapply to join the EU? Spain suggested it would veto Scottish membership
• Oil revenues: North Sea oil prices were falling, undermining the SNP's economic case
• Pensions and public services: Would pensions be safe? Would the NHS be protected?
• The Vow: In the final week, UK party leaders promised more devolved powers if Scotland voted No

The Yes Scotland campaign (SNP, Greens, Scottish Socialists) argued for self-determination, social justice, and escaping Westminster austerity, but couldn't overcome economic uncertainty.

The demographic divide

• Yes voters: Younger (16-34 year olds voted 51% Yes), urban (Glasgow voted 53% Yes), working-class
• No voters: Older (65+ voted 73% No), rural, middle-class, women (57% No vs 47% Yes among men)

The aftermath: SNP surge, not decline

Conventional wisdom suggested the SNP would decline after losing the referendum. The opposite happened:

• Membership surge: SNP membership rose from 25,000 (September 2014) to 120,000 (December 2014)—making it the third-largest UK party by membership
• 2015 Westminster election: The SNP won 56 of 59 Scottish seats (up from 6 in 2010), wiping out Labour in Scotland
• Nicola Sturgeon: Became SNP leader and First Minister in November 2014, replacing Alex Salmond

The referendum energised the independence movement rather than settling it.

The SNP's Decade of Dominance (2015-2023)

From 2015 to 2023, the SNP won every election in Scotland:

Westminster elections

• 2015: 56 of 59 seats (50.0% vote share)
• 2017: 35 of 59 seats (36.9%)—lost 21 seats as unionist tactical voting increased
• 2019: 48 of 59 seats (45.0%)—recovered ground on a "stop Brexit" message

Scottish Parliament elections

• 2016: 63 of 129 seats (minority government)
• 2021: 64 of 129 seats (minority government, one seat short of majority)

Nicola Sturgeon's leadership

Nicola Sturgeon became the most popular politician in the UK, with approval ratings consistently above 60% in Scotland. Her leadership was defined by:

• Competence: Effective communication during COVID-19, contrasting with Boris Johnson's chaos
• Progressive policies: Free university tuition, free prescriptions, baby boxes, minimum unit pricing for alcohol
• Independence strategy: Demanded a second referendum (indyref2) after Brexit, arguing Scotland was being dragged out of the EU against its will (62% of Scots voted Remain in 2016)

The Brexit factor

Brexit revitalised the independence case:

• Democratic deficit: Scotland voted 62% Remain, but was forced to leave the EU
• Economic damage: Brexit hit Scottish exports, fishing, and farming
• Divergence: Scotland's social democratic politics clashed with Conservative Brexit Britain

Polls showed independence support rising to 54-58% in 2020, the highest ever recorded.

The Collapse: 2023-2024

The SNP's dominance ended abruptly in 2023:

February 2023: Sturgeon resigns

On 15 February 2023, Nicola Sturgeon suddenly resigned as First Minister and SNP leader, citing exhaustion and the toll of eight years in office. However, several factors contributed:

• Gender Recognition Reform: Sturgeon's support for self-ID for transgender people divided the party and the public
• Isla Bryson case: A trans woman (male-bodied) convicted of rape was initially sent to a women's prison, causing outrage
• Independence strategy: Sturgeon's plan to treat the next UK election as a "de facto referendum" was unpopular with members
• Personal toll: Constant media scrutiny and pressure

March 2023: Chaotic leadership election

The SNP leadership election to replace Sturgeon was chaotic:

• Candidates: Humza Yousaf (continuity candidate), Kate Forbes (socially conservative, opposed gender reform), Ash Regan (pro-independence hardliner)
• Membership scandal: The SNP refused to publish membership numbers, then admitted membership had fallen from 104,000 to 72,000 in a year
• Result: Humza Yousaf won narrowly (52% to Forbes' 48% in the final round)

Yousaf's victory was controversial—he was seen as Sturgeon's chosen successor and lacked a strong mandate.

April 2023: Police investigation and arrests

On 5 April 2023, police arrested Peter Murrell (Sturgeon's husband and former SNP chief executive) as part of Operation Branchform, investigating £600,000 in missing independence campaign funds. On 11 April, police arrested Nicola Sturgeon herself, and later Colin Beattie (party treasurer).

All were released without charge, but the scandal was devastating:

• Reputation damage: The SNP's image of competence and integrity was shattered
• Membership exodus: Membership fell further, to around 64,000 by mid-2023
• Media frenzy: Daily headlines about "missing money" and police searches of Sturgeon's home

April 2024: Yousaf resigns

On 29 April 2024, Humza Yousaf resigned after just 13 months as First Minister, following a botched attempt to end the SNP's power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens. He lost a confidence vote and quit.

John Swinney (former deputy First Minister) became leader unopposed in May 2024, promising stability.

July 2024: Electoral catastrophe

The 4 July 2024 UK general election was a disaster for the SNP:

• Seats: 9 (down 39 from 48 in 2019)
• Vote share: 30.0% (down 15 percentage points)
• Labour surge: Labour won 37 Scottish seats (up from 1 in 2019)

Key losses included:

• SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn: Held Aberdeen South by just 1,339 votes
• Former leader Ian Blackford: Lost Ross, Skye and Lochaber
• Joanna Cherry: Lost Edinburgh South West

The result showed the SNP's dominance was over, and Labour had reclaimed its Scottish heartlands.

Why the SNP Collapsed

Several factors explain the SNP's decline:

1. Scandals and competence failures

• Police investigation: The missing £600,000 and arrests damaged trust
• Ferries scandal: Two CalMac ferries ordered in 2015 are still not delivered, costing over £400 million (original budget: £97 million)
• Gender reform backlash: The Gender Recognition Reform Bill alienated socially conservative voters
• NHS crisis: Waiting times and A&E performance worsened under SNP government

2. Leadership instability

Three leaders in 18 months (Sturgeon, Yousaf, Swinney) created chaos and undermined the SNP's image of stability.

3. Independence fatigue

Many voters were tired of the constitutional debate and wanted the SNP to focus on public services, the NHS, and the cost of living.

4. Labour's revival

Under Anas Sarwar (Scottish Labour leader) and Keir Starmer, Labour rebuilt its Scottish base by:

• Focusing on public services: NHS, education, cost of living
• Dropping Corbyn baggage: Starmer's leadership made Labour electable again
• Unionist tactical voting: Conservatives and Lib Dems voted Labour to defeat the SNP

5. No path to indyref2

The UK Supreme Court ruling (November 2022) that Scotland cannot hold a referendum without Westminster consent killed the SNP's main pitch. With Labour and Conservatives both opposed to indyref2, there was no realistic path to independence.

The State of the Independence Movement

Despite the SNP's decline, support for independence has remained stable:

Polling (2024)

• Yes (independence): 45-48%
• No (remain in UK): 52-55%

This is similar to 2014 levels, suggesting the SNP's problems are about governance and leadership, not the independence cause itself.

Paths to indyref2

The independence movement faces three options:

1. Westminster consent: Persuade a future UK government to grant a Section 30 order (as David Cameron did in 2012). Labour has ruled this out for at least five years.
2. De facto referendum: Treat a Scottish Parliament or Westminster election as a single-issue independence vote. This is legally dubious and unlikely to be recognised internationally.
3. UDI (Unilateral Declaration of Independence): Declare independence without a referendum. This would be illegal, unrecognised, and politically catastrophic.

None of these options is realistic in the short term.

Internal divisions

The SNP is divided over strategy:

• Gradualists (Swinney, Sturgeon): Build support for independence over time, focus on good governance
• Fundamentalists (Alba Party, some SNP members): Demand immediate action, treat every election as a referendum