Daily Junction.mobi portalThe Alba Party, founded by Alex Salmond in 2021, split the independence vote but has failed to win seats (it won 0 seats in 2024).
The 2014 independence referendum saw 55% vote No to independence, but the SNP surged afterwards, winning 56 of 59 Scottish seats in 2015. The SNP dominated Scottish politics from 2015-2023 under Nicola Sturgeon, winning every Scottish Parliament and Westminster election. Sturgeon's sudden resignation in February 2023 triggered a leadership crisis, police investigation into party finances, and membership collapse from 104,000 to around 64,000.
The SNP lost 39 seats in the 2024 UK election, falling from 48 to 9 MPs, while Labour won 37 Scottish seats—a dramatic reversal driven by scandals, leadership chaos, competence failures, and independence fatigue. Support for independence has remained around 45-50% since 2014, but the path to a second referendum is blocked by Westminster (the Supreme Court ruled Scotland cannot hold one without consent) and internal SNP divisions.
The independence movement is in crisis, but not dead. If the SNP can rebuild under John Swinney, focus on governance, and wait for a political opportunity (e.g., a future hung parliament where the SNP holds the balance of power), indyref2 could return to the agenda. But for now, the dream of independence is further away than at any point since 2014.