Politics · August 16, 2026 · The Conversation · 6 min
The EU’s new electrification plan aims to slash reliance on fossil fuels by doubling the number of heat pumps by 2030.
<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <figure> <img alt="electric home with charging car and solar panels, graphic in blue green" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/750020/original/file-20260724-71-slqx6n.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1&rect=1056%2C0%2C3554%2C1999&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" /> <figcaption>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/flat-vector-illustration-smart-grid-energy-2753629661">Pasha Smith/Shutterstock</a></span> </figcaption> </figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lala-rukh-1518512">Lala Rukh</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-galway-2699">University of Galway</a></em>; <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/atlantic-technological-university-5728">Atlantic Technological University</a></em></span>
<p>Across Europe, running a home – whether you need to keep it cool in the summer or heat it during winter – usually means burning imported gas. That wastes energy and creates carbon emissions, contributing to climate change. The European Commission’s new <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_1596">electrification action plan</a> aims to end that era, mapping out a drive to double electricity’s energy share from 23% to 46% by 2040.</p>
<p>“I have always looked forward to the day that our energy system is based on electrons, not molecules,” <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7483865316935049216/">said Vangelis Tzimas</a>, who heads an energy policy unit at the European Commission’s science service, in response to this news. </p>
<p>Electrons, not molecules. It sounds abstract, but for homes, it is the difference between a house that burns something and a house that doesn’t.</p>
<p><a href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-efficiency/energy-performance-buildings/energy-performance-buildings-directive_en">Buildings consume 40%</a> of all the energy Europe uses, most of it for heating with gas boilers, so this is where this shift will succeed or fail. I measure energy performance as part of my <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-032-06810-1_11">work</a>, through <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-032-06806-4_75">sensors</a> in Irish social housing, and the data points to four reasons why electricity is superior to gas.</p>
<p>The most persuasive one is efficiency. A gas boiler burns fuel and gives you, at best, one unit of heat per unit of gas. A heat pump delivers <a href="https://www.esbnetworks.ie/about-us/projects/electrification-of-heat-and-transport/electrification-of-heat">three to four units</a> of heat per unit of electricity. </p>
<p>A heat pump, essentially a fridge running in reverse, gathers warmth from the outside air and keeps working even in freezing weather. Run it the other way and <a href="https://build-up.ec.europa.eu/en/news-and-events/news/heres-how-heat-pump-can-cool-your-house-summer">it cools your home too</a>, which matters more with every <a href="https://theconversation.com/europe-is-battling-a-record-breaking-heatwave-whats-making-it-so-severe-286019">record summer</a>.</p>
<p>So why doesn’t every house already have a heat pump? It’s expensive to buy one, and even to run it. Before government grants, installing a heat pump costs around <a href="https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/plugging-heat-in-smart-policy-can-help-electrify-household-heating-in-europe/">£10,000 in the UK and close to €30,000 (£26,000) in Germany</a>. In contrast, a new gas boiler will only set you back roughly £2,500. </p>
<p>This massive price gap isn’t about the technology. Steep labour costs, high VAT, and a shortage of installers mean the same machine costs <a href="https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/plugging-heat-in-smart-policy-can-help-electrify-household-heating-in-europe/">twice</a> as much across borders. </p>
<p>These upfront costs are being tackled through subsidies and low-interest loans. In the UK, the government introduced a <a href="https://www.energy-uk.org.uk/publications/energy-uk-explains-the-clean-heat-market-mechanism-2/">clean heat market mechanism</a> to try and increase competition and drive down prices of heat pumps by 2027. To fund the transition in the EU, the European Investment Bank is spending <a href="https://sustainablefutures.linklaters.com/post/102ne3z/european-commission-publishes-electrification-action-plan-to-make-europe-the-fir">€75 billion</a> on grids, storage and heat pump manufacturing.</p>
<p>Upfront bills form half a heat pump’s lifetime expense, but running costs are the real hurdle. Because EU electricity costs <a href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/strategy/affordable-energy_en">three times more than gas</a>, a heat pump’s impressive efficiency is entirely cancelled out at the meter. In the UK, where electricity is <a href="https://www.energy-uk.org.uk/publications/energy-uk-explains-the-spark-gap/">4.3 times more expensive</a>, this greener technology actually costs more to run.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable"> <a aria-label="Zoomable image" href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/753066/original/file-20260810-50-x08c1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="heat pump by brock wall outside of house" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/753066/original/file-20260810-50-x08c1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/753066/original/file-20260810-50-x08c1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/753066/original/file-20260810-50-x08c1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/753066/original/file-20260810-50-x08c1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/753066/original/file-20260810-50-x08c1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/753066/original/file-20260810-50-x08c1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/753066/original/file-20260810-50-x08c1a.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.1&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a> <figcaption> <span class="caption">A heat pump, essentially a fridge running in reverse, gathers warmth from the outside air and keeps working even in freezing weather. Run it the other way and it cools your home too.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/air-source-heat-pump-fitted-outside-2269588015">Planprophoto/Shutterstock</a></span> </figcaption> </figure>
<p>This difference between electricity and gas prices, called the <a href="https://www.energy-uk.org.uk/publications/energy-uk-explains-the-spark-gap/">“spark gap”</a>, is partly because <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/guneyyildiz/2026/07/19/electricity-costs-3-gas-in-europe-tax-is-a-big-reason-why/">taxes</a> are significantly higher for electricity than gas. The European Commission is finally imposing a legal obligation on EU governments to tackle this pricing accident. They are being asked to shrink the gap by 2030 to no more than <a href="https://ehpa.org/news-and-resources/policy/fixing-the-electricity-to-gas-price-gap-a-crucial-step-for-electrification/">2.5 for households</a>, by reducing the tax for electricity; allowing VAT cuts on heat pumps, electric cars and home batteries; and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies after 2030. </p>
<p>Britain has started to close the price gap too. The 2025 autumn budget shifted most green levies off electricity bills and into general taxation, which trimmed the ratio to around <a href="https://www.energy-uk.org.uk/publications/energy-uk-explains-the-spark-gap/">4.3 from 4.7</a> in April 2026.</p>
<p>These strategies are the right way forward, because countries where the gap is smallest already sell around <a href="https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/plugging-heat-in-smart-policy-can-help-electrify-household-heating-in-europe/">three times</a> as many heat pumps as those where it is widest.</p>
<p>If the spark gap falls to 2.5, to match a 90% efficient gas boiler, a heat pump needs to <a href="https://passivehouseplus.co.uk/news/renewable-energy/eu-electrification-action-plan-to-accelerate-heat-pump-transition">generate 2.25kW</a> of heat per kilowatt of power. <a href="https://passivehouseplus.co.uk/news/renewable-energy/eu-electrification-action-plan-to-accelerate-heat-pump-transition">UK data</a> shows every unit tested beat that benchmark, meaning owners should save money in the long run. Once the spark gap is reduced, the heat pump will become a cheaper way to cool or warm a house.</p>
<p>The European Commission electrification plan puts emphasis on heat pump installations that allow heat-recovery ventilation. These can capture up to <a href="https://www.cse.org.uk/advice/mechanical-ventilation-with-heat-recovery/">90% of the warmth</a> from outgoing stale air and transfer it to incoming fresh air — meaning heat you already paid for gets reused. The aim is to nearly double heat pump installations that allow heat recovery from 2.4 million a year in 2025 to 4 million by 2030.</p>
<p>The second reason why electricity wins is your home’s carbon footprint. Every time you burn gas, CO₂ exits the flue. An electric home burns nothing. Its emissions depend on how the electricity was made, which is improving every year: <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_1596">around 70%</a> of Europe’s electricity already comes from home-grown clean sources. </p>