Daily Junction.mobi portal<p>So, on a population-wide level, our estimates of caution offset overconfidence only imperfectly. While this balance varies significantly from person to person, enough average cost survives across the population for the signal to remain credible.</p>
<p>In addition, while confidence must be displayed to be effective, there is obviously no need to brag about your timidity – and no gain to be had from doing so. This means that overconfidence remains a costly, and thus credible, signal for many people.</p>
<p>So, we think former US president Franklin D. Roosevelt had a point when he said of his army general, Douglas MacArthur: “Never underestimate a man who overestimates himself.”<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/289063/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important" referrerpolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-dawson-342310">Chris Dawson</a>, Professor of Economics and Behavioural Science, School of Management, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-bath-1325">University of Bath</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-de-meza-549537">David de Meza</a>, Professor of Management, Department of Management, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/london-school-of-economics-and-political-science-1219">London School of Economics and Political Science</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-psychology-of-overconfidence-why-excessive-self-belief-is-often-a-successful-strategy-in-life-289063">original article</a>.</p> </div>