Arsenal's biggest obstacle is Manchester City, who have won 6 of the last 7 Premier League titles and show no signs of slowing down.
Arsenal have won 1 of 4 matches against City in the Arteta era, scoring just 2 goals in 4 games. They must improve this record to win the title.
Arsenal have the squad, tactics, and momentum to win the Premier League in 2024-25. They have closed the gap to Manchester City from 15 points to 2 points over three seasons, and their summer signings address the weaknesses that cost them the title in 2023-24.
Arsenal will push Manchester City all the way, but City will win the title by 3-5 points. Arsenal's squad is stronger than ever, but City's experience and Guardiola's tactical genius will prove decisive in the final weeks. However, if City suffer injuries to Rodri or Haaland, or if Arsenal win both head-to-head matches, the Gunners have a genuine chance of ending their 21-year wait.
Arsenal's best hope: Win the title in 2025-26, when City's ageing core (De Bruyne, Walker, Gündogan) will be another year older and Arsenal's young squad will be entering their peak years.
Arsenal finished 2nd in 2022-23 (5 points behind City) and 2023-24 (2 points behind City), showing consistent improvement under Arteta but falling short in the final weeks both times. The Gunners strengthened in summer 2024 with a clinical striker and experienced midfielder, addressing the two weaknesses that cost them the title. Arsenal's set-piece dominance (22 goals from corners/free-kicks in 2023-24) gives them a tactical edge, but they must improve their record against top-six rivals (W3 D3 L4 in 2023-24). The squad depth has improved significantly with quality backups in every position, reducing the drop-off when key players are rested or injured.
Mental resilience is the final test — Arsenal collapsed in March/April in both 2022-23 and 2023-24, and must prove they can handle the pressure of a title run-in. If they can beat Manchester City in at least one head-to-head match, avoid late-season collapses, and stay injury-free, they have a genuine chance of ending the 21-year wait. But City's experience, squad depth, and Pep Guardiola's tactical mastery make them favourites to win a seventh title in eight years. Arsenal's time will come — but it may be 2025-26 rather than 2024-25.