Daily Junction.mobi portalThe next few years are critical. If China believes the US is distracted (by domestic politics, Ukraine, the Middle East) or weakened (by political dysfunction, military overstretch), it may see a window of opportunity. If Taiwan's government moves towards formal independence, China may feel compelled to act. If the US makes a clear commitment to defend Taiwan, it may deter China—or it may convince Beijing that time is running out and it must act soon.
The most likely outcome is continued tension without war, but the risk is higher than at any time since the 1950s. China is not bluffing about its willingness to use force, and the US is not bluffing about its interest in Taiwan's survival. The question is whether both sides can manage this rivalry without stumbling into a conflict that neither wants but both are preparing for. The Taiwan Strait is not just a regional issue; it is the hinge on which the future of the international order turns. And the hinge is under more stress than it has ever been.