Daily Junction.mobi portalCriticism: US support enables Israeli war crimes (targeting civilians, collective punishment). Progressive Democrats (Bernie Sanders, AOC) call for conditioning US aid on Israeli compliance with international law, but Biden/Harris administration refuses.
Israel occupies Gaza indefinitely (like the West Bank):
Precedent: West Bank (occupied since 1967, 57 years)
Likelihood: 70%
The Palestinian Authority (PA, governs West Bank) takes over Gaza:
Problem: PA is weak, corrupt, and unpopular (seen as Israeli collaborators). Hamas would likely overthrow PA in a civil war (as it did in 2007).
Likelihood: 20%
Hezbollah (Lebanon) or Iran intervenes, triggering regional war:
Result: Catastrophic war, 100,000+ deaths, regional instability
Likelihood: 10% (Hezbollah and Iran have avoided full-scale war so far, but risk is rising)
An independent Palestinian state alongside Israel:
Problem: Israel has 700,000 settlers in the West Bank (illegal under international law) and refuses to remove them. Netanyahu opposes Palestinian statehood. Hamas rejects Israel's existence. The two-state solution is politically dead.
Likelihood: <1%
The Gaza war has killed 45,000 Palestinians (70% women and children) and 1,800 Israelis since October 2023, making it the deadliest Israel-Palestine conflict since 1948. Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis and took 240 hostages on 7 October 2023, triggering an Israeli invasion that has destroyed 70% of Gaza's buildings and displaced 2 million people (90% of the population). Israel controls all of Gaza but faces a permanent insurgency from Hamas, which has 10,000-15,000 fighters remaining.
The war has no end in sight. Israel refuses to withdraw until Hamas is destroyed, but Hamas cannot be destroyed (it is an ideology, not just a military force). The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu (war crimes) and Hamas leaders (terrorism). The International Court of Justice ruled Israel's occupation of the West Bank is illegal. The two-state solution is dead — Israel has 700,000 settlers in the West Bank, Netanyahu opposes Palestinian statehood, and Hamas rejects Israel's existence.
The war will likely end in indefinite Israeli occupation of Gaza (like the West Bank), with periodic flare-ups every 5-10 years. Peace requires Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories, Palestinian recognition of Israel, and international guarantees — none of which are politically feasible. The result is permanent occupation, permanent conflict, and permanent suffering for Palestinians and Israelis alike.