Daily Junction.mobi portalWorld · July 14, 2026 · Liam Chen · 7 min
Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 — here's why it happened, how the war is going, and what the possible outcomes are.
On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with 190,000 troops, launching the largest war in Europe since World War II. Russia expected a quick victory — capturing the capital Kyiv in 3–5 days and overthrowing the government. But Ukraine fought back, repelling the invasion of Kyiv and forcing Russia to retreat. The war has now lasted over 2.5 years, killed 500,000+ people, displaced 8 million Ukrainians, and cost the global economy $1 trillion. Russia controls 18% of Ukraine (Crimea since 2014, plus Donbas and southern regions captured in 2022), but Ukraine has recaptured 50% of occupied territory in 2022–2023. The West has provided $200+ billion in aid to Ukraine, including tanks, artillery, and F-16 jets. Here is everything you need to know about the Russia-Ukraine war — why it happened, how it is going, and how it could end.
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) is a military alliance of 32 countries (including USA, UK, France, Germany) pledged to defend each other. Ukraine wanted to join NATO, which would put NATO troops on Russia's border.
Putin sees NATO expansion as an existential threat to Russia. He has repeatedly said that Ukraine joining NATO is a "red line" that Russia will not tolerate.
Russia argues that NATO promised not to expand eastward after the Cold War (disputed — no formal agreement exists), but NATO has expanded from 16 members in 1990 to 32 members in 2024, including former Soviet states (Poland, Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria).
Putin believes that Ukraine is part of Russia's sphere of influence and that Ukrainians and Russians are "one people". He has said that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century".
Putin wants to restore Russian greatness and sees Ukraine as a core part of that project. He has written essays arguing that Ukraine is not a real country and that it should be part of Russia.
The war distracts from Russia's economic problems (stagnant economy, corruption, inequality) and strengthens Putin's grip on power. War rallies the population around the leader and silences dissent.
Putin expected a quick victory — capturing Kyiv in 3–5 days, overthrowing the government, and installing a pro-Russian puppet. He underestimated:
On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with 190,000 troops from three directions:
Russia sent a 40-mile convoy of tanks and troops towards Kyiv, expecting to capture the capital in 3–5 days. But Ukraine fought back:
After 1 month, Russia withdrew from Kyiv (April 2022), suffering heavy losses (10,000+ soldiers killed, hundreds of tanks destroyed). It was a humiliating defeat for Russia.
After failing to capture Kyiv, Russia shifted its focus to eastern and southern Ukraine (Donbas, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia). Russia made slow progress, capturing 20% of Ukraine by June 2022.
Ukraine launched a surprise offensive in Kharkiv (northeast Ukraine), recapturing 6,000 square km in 1 week. Russia retreated in chaos, abandoning tanks, weapons, and supplies.
Ukraine recaptured Kherson (southern Ukraine), the only regional capital Russia had captured. Russia withdrew across the Dnipro River, blowing up bridges behind them.
Ukraine launched a major offensive to recapture southern Ukraine and cut the land bridge to Crimea. But the offensive stalled — Russia had built deep defences (minefields, trenches, fortifications), and Ukraine lacked air superiority.
Ukraine recaptured small amounts of territory but at high cost (thousands of casualties). The offensive was a disappointment.
The West has provided $200+ billion in aid to Ukraine:
Western weapons include:
Russia has lost:
Russia is recruiting 30,000 soldiers per month to replace losses, but quality is declining (older men, prisoners, poorly trained conscripts).
Ukraine recaptures all occupied territory (including Crimea) and Russia withdraws. This would require:
Likelihood: Low. Russia has more troops and weapons than Ukraine, and can sustain losses longer. A full Ukrainian victory is possible but difficult.
The war ends in a stalemate (like Korea 1950–1953), with Russia controlling 18% of Ukraine and a ceasefire but no peace treaty. Ukraine does not recognise Russian control, but fighting stops.
Likelihood: High. This is the most likely outcome. Both sides are exhausted, and neither can achieve a decisive victory. A frozen conflict allows both sides to claim victory (Russia keeps territory, Ukraine survives) while avoiding further losses.
Russia captures more territory and forces Ukraine to cede land (Crimea, Donbas, southern regions) in a peace deal. Ukraine agrees to stay out of NATO.
Likelihood: Medium. This could happen if:
The war escalates to direct NATO-Russia conflict or nuclear war. This would be catastrophic (millions dead, global economic collapse).
Likelihood: Low but not zero. Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons if Russia faces an "existential threat". The West is careful to avoid direct conflict (no NATO troops in Ukraine), but accidents or miscalculations could trigger escalation.
The UK has been one of Ukraine's strongest supporters:
The UK has also provided intelligence and diplomatic support (rallying European allies, pushing for tougher sanctions).
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