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Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022 with 190,000 troops, aiming to capture Kyiv and overthrow the government, but was repelled after 1 month. The war has killed 500,000+ people (300,000+ Russian soldiers, 200,000+ Ukrainian soldiers/civilians) and displaced 8 million Ukrainians. Russia controls 18% of Ukraine (Crimea since 2014, plus Donbas and southern regions captured in 2022), but Ukraine recaptured 50% of occupied territory in 2022-2023. The West has provided $200+ billion in military and financial aid to Ukraine (USA $100bn, EU $80bn, UK £12bn), including tanks, artillery, and F-16 jets. The war could end with: Ukraine victory (Russia withdraws), frozen conflict (Korea-style stalemate), or Russian victory (Ukraine forced to cede territory), with frozen conflict most likely. The Russia-Ukraine war is the largest conflict in Europe since World War II, and it has reshaped global geopolitics. Russia has been weakened militarily and economically, but it retains 18% of Ukraine and shows no sign of giving up. Ukraine has defied expectations by surviving and recapturing territory, but it faces a long, grinding war of attrition. The West has united behind Ukraine, but support may waver if the war drags on. The most likely outcome is a frozen conflict — a stalemate with no peace treaty, like Korea. But the war could also escalate (nuclear weapons, NATO involvement) or end in Ukrainian victory (if Russia collapses). The next 1-2 years will be decisive.

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