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Russia-Ukraine War: Where It Stands in 2026, What Ukraine Has Lost, and How It Could End

World · July 28, 2026 · Liam Chen · 7 min

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Russia controls 20% of Ukraine after 4 years of war — here's what's happening on the ground, what Ukraine has lost, and the three ways this war could end.

On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in the largest European war since 1945. Four years later, the war has killed over 500,000 soldiers (both sides combined), displaced 8 million Ukrainians, and cost the global economy $1 trillion in lost growth, energy shocks, and food shortages. Russia controls 20% of Ukraine (109,000 km²) including Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. The war has settled into WWI-style trench warfare with 1,000+ casualties per day on both sides, and no end in sight.

Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive — backed by $100 billion in Western weapons (tanks, artillery, air defence) — failed to break Russian lines, advancing just 10km in six months at the cost of 30,000 Ukrainian casualties. Since then, Russia has slowly advanced in Donbas (1-2km per month), grinding forward through minefields, trenches, and fortified villages. Ukraine is holding the line but losing ground.

Western military aid totals $380 billion (2022-2026), but Ukraine faces ammunition shortages while Russia outproduces the West 3:1 in artillery shells. The war will likely end in a frozen conflict (Korea-style armistice), a negotiated settlement (Ukraine cedes territory for peace), or Ukrainian collapse (if Western aid stops). Full Ukrainian victory (recapturing all territory including Crimea) is unlikely. Here's where the war stands, what Ukraine has lost, and how it could end.

What Russia Controls

Russia controls 20% of Ukraine (109,000 km² out of 603,000 km²):

Crimea (27,000 km²)

Annexed by Russia in 2014 (before the 2022 invasion). Russia has controlled Crimea for 12 years and has integrated it into Russia (Russian passports, Russian currency, Russian military bases). Ukraine has no realistic prospect of recapturing Crimea militarily.

Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (Donbas) (53,000 km²)

Russia controls 80% of Donetsk and 100% of Luhansk (the two oblasts that make up the Donbas region). Russia has been fighting in Donbas since 2014 (before the 2022 invasion) and declared Donetsk and Luhansk "independent republics" in February 2022. Russia formally annexed Donetsk and Luhansk in September 2022 (along with Zaporizhzhia and Kherson).

Current fighting: Russia is slowly advancing in Donetsk (1-2km per month), capturing fortified villages (Avdiivka fell in February 2024, Bakhmut fell in May 2023). Ukraine is defending but losing ground.

Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts (29,000 km²)

Russia controls 70% of Zaporizhzhia (including Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest) and 30% of Kherson (the east bank of the Dnipro River).

Ukraine recaptured Kherson city in November 2022 (Russia's only major territorial loss since the invasion), but Russia still controls the east bank of the Dnipro River.

Current fighting: The front line is static along the Dnipro River. Neither side can cross the river (too wide, too well-defended).

Total

Russia controls 109,000 km² (20% of Ukraine), including:

• Crimea: 27,000 km² (annexed 2014)
• Donbas (Donetsk + Luhansk): 53,000 km²
• Zaporizhzhia + Kherson: 29,000 km²

This is an area the size of England (130,000 km²) or Pennsylvania (119,000 km²).

What's Happening on the Ground

Stalemate

The war has settled into WWI-style trench warfare:

• Minefields: Both sides have laid millions of mines, making advances slow and costly
• Trenches: Both sides have dug hundreds of kilometres of trenches, fortified with concrete bunkers and anti-tank obstacles
• Artillery duels: Both sides fire 10,000+ artillery shells per day, causing 70% of casualties
• Drones: Both sides use thousands of drones (surveillance, kamikaze, FPV) to spot targets and attack trenches
• Attrition: Both sides are losing 1,000+ soldiers per day (killed + wounded), with no breakthrough in sight

Russia's strategy

Russia is pursuing a war of attrition:

• Grind forward slowly: Advance 1-2km per month in Donbas, capturing fortified villages one by one
• Outlast Ukraine: Russia has more soldiers (1.3 million vs Ukraine 700,000), more artillery shells (3:1 production advantage), and can sustain losses longer
• Wait for Western fatigue: Russia is betting that the West will tire of funding Ukraine ($380 billion so far) and force Ukraine to negotiate

Ukraine's strategy

Ukraine is pursuing a defensive strategy:

• Hold the line: Defend current positions, prevent Russian breakthroughs
• Attrit Russian forces: Inflict maximum casualties on Russian attackers (Russia loses 3-5 soldiers for every Ukrainian defender)
• Wait for Western weapons: Ukraine is waiting for F-16 fighter jets (arriving summer 2024), ATACMS long-range missiles (approved 2024), and more tanks/artillery to enable a new counteroffensive

The problem

Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive failed because:

1. Russian defences were too strong: Russia built 1,000km of trenches, minefields, and anti-tank obstacles (the "Surovikin Line") that Ukraine could not break through
2. Ukraine lacked air superiority: Russia's air defences (S-400, S-300) prevented Ukraine from using aircraft to support the offensive
3. Ukraine lacked ammunition: Ukraine fired 7,000 artillery shells per day (vs Russia 10,000), limiting its ability to suppress Russian defences
4. Ukraine lacked training: Ukrainian troops were trained for 6 weeks (vs 6 months for NATO standard), and many were inexperienced conscripts

The 2024 situation is worse: Ukraine has fewer soldiers (700,000 vs 1.3 million Russian), less ammunition (Western production has increased but still lags Russia), and no clear path to breaking Russian lines.

Casualties

The war is the deadliest European conflict since WWII:

Russian casualties

• 315,000 killed (UK Ministry of Defence estimate, July 2026)
• 500,000+ wounded
• Total: 815,000+ casualties (killed + wounded)

Russia is losing 1,000+ soldiers per day (killed + wounded), the highest casualty rate since WWII.

Ukrainian casualties

• 70,000-100,000 killed (Western estimates, Ukraine does not publish figures)
• 500,000+ wounded
• Total: 570,000-600,000 casualties

Ukraine is losing 500-800 soldiers per day (killed + wounded).

Civilian casualties

• 30,000+ Ukrainian civilians killed (UN estimate, likely undercount)
• 50,000+ Ukrainian civilians wounded
• 8 million Ukrainians displaced (6 million refugees abroad, 2 million internally displaced)

Equipment losses

• Russia: 3,000+ tanks, 6,000+ armoured vehicles, 300+ aircraft, 20+ warships (Oryx verified losses)
• Ukraine: 800+ tanks, 1,500+ armoured vehicles, 80+ aircraft (Oryx verified losses)

Both sides have lost more equipment than most countries possess.

Western Military Aid

Western countries have provided $380 billion in military aid to Ukraine (2022-2026):

By country

• USA: $175 billion (46% of total)
• EU: $120 billion (32%)
• UK: $25 billion (7%)
• Germany: $20 billion (5%)
• Other: $40 billion (10%)

What Ukraine has received

• Tanks: 500+ (Leopard 2, Challenger 2, Abrams)
• Artillery: 1,000+ guns (M777, CAESAR, PzH 2000)
• Air defence: 100+ systems (Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS)
• HIMARS/MLRS: 50+ systems (long-range rocket artillery)
• ATACMS: 200+ missiles (300km range, approved 2024)
• F-16 fighter jets: 85 pledged (arriving summer 2024)
• Ammunition: 5 million artillery shells (2022-2026)

The problem

Western aid is not enough:

1. Ammunition shortage: Ukraine fires 7,000 shells per day, Russia fires 10,000. Western production is 1.2 million shells per year (vs Russia 3 million), so Ukraine is always short.

1. Delayed delivery: F-16s were promised in 2023 but are arriving in 2024 (18 months late). ATACMS were requested in 2022 but approved in 2024 (2 years late).

1. Political uncertainty: US Republicans blocked $60 billion in aid for 6 months (October 2023 - April 2024), causing ammunition shortages. If Donald Trump wins the 2024 US election, he may cut aid entirely.

1. European fatigue: European voters are tiring of the war (cost of living crisis, energy prices, refugee burden). Support for Ukraine is falling in Germany, France, and Italy.

How Could the War End?

Scenario 1: Frozen conflict (most likely)

A Korea-style armistice: fighting stops, but no peace treaty. Russia keeps occupied territory (20% of Ukraine), Ukraine keeps the rest. A demilitarised zone is established along the front line. Both sides claim victory and refuse to negotiate.

Precedent: Korean War (1950-1953) ended in armistice, not peace treaty. North and South Korea are still technically at war 70 years later.

Pros: Stops the killing, allows reconstruction, gives Ukraine time to rebuild military Cons: Russia keeps occupied territory, Ukraine does not regain sovereignty, war could restart at any time

Likelihood: 60%

Scenario 2: Negotiated settlement (possible)

Ukraine and Russia negotiate a peace deal:

• Ukraine cedes Crimea + Donbas (20% of territory) to Russia
• Russia withdraws from Zaporizhzhia + Kherson (10% of territory)
• Ukraine joins NATO (or receives security guarantees from US/UK/France)
• Sanctions on Russia are lifted (partially)

Precedent: Finland ceded 10% of territory to USSR in 1940 (Winter War) in exchange for peace

Pros: Ends the war, Ukraine gets NATO membership, reconstruction begins Cons: Ukraine loses 20% of territory, Russia "wins", sets precedent for territorial conquest

Likelihood: 30% (only if Western aid stops or Ukraine faces collapse)

Scenario 3: Ukrainian collapse (worst case)