Daily Junction.mobi portalWorld · July 14, 2026 · The Conversation · 7 min
Suitable spots for establishing human outposts at the south pole are finite.
<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <figure> <img alt="Illustration of a lunar base." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/742484/original/file-20260617-85-vhjl4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&rect=0%2C180%2C2675%2C1504&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" /> <figcaption> Nasa is planning to build up its lunar base in stages. <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nasa</span></span> </figcaption> </figure>
<span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chris-north-121808">Chris North</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cardiff-university-1257">Cardiff University</a></em></span>
<p>Sixty years ago, the United States and the Soviet Union were embroiled in a race to the Moon, which the USA won. The 21st-century lunar contest, with China stepping in for the Soviet Union, has many similarities, but key differences. </p>
<p>The Apollo astronauts planted the stars and stripes in <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/moon-606">lunar soil</a>, bounced – and drove – around, set up experiments and collected scientifically valuable rock samples. Ultimately, however, there was no real plan to stay. </p>
<p>The new Moon race is different: space agencies are targeting the south pole of the Moon due to its <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/moon/moon-water-and-ices/">deposits of water ice</a>. This water can be used for life support on a lunar base. It can also be turned into rocket fuel, splitting it into the hydrogen and oxygen used by space vehicles, making it a valuable resource. </p>
<p>But ice deposits are not evenly distributed and suitable spots for establishing human outposts are finite. This could spark competition to bag the best spots. So will the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-is-now-at-risk-of-losing-to-china-in-the-race-to-send-people-back-to-the-moons-surface-241716">US-China lunar contest</a> turn into a land grab?</p>
<p>For anyone growing up in the 1980s and 90s, human space travel almost seemed to become “routine”, but that era was still mainly the domain of the US and the Soviet Union (and then Russia). While the European Space Agency was growing, it focused largely on robotic scientific mission and commercial launches. Now, 30 years later, the sector has grown massively, and space is no longer the sole domain of a few superpowers.</p>
<p>Around 20 nations are able to carry out space launches, mainly to send satellites into orbit. But there have also been privately funded robotic missions to the Moon – albeit with significant support from government agencies. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable"> <a aria-label="Zoomable image" href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/742399/original/file-20260617-57-lo9ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Artemis II crew" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/742399/original/file-20260617-57-lo9ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/742399/original/file-20260617-57-lo9ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/742399/original/file-20260617-57-lo9ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/742399/original/file-20260617-57-lo9ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/742399/original/file-20260617-57-lo9ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/742399/original/file-20260617-57-lo9ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/742399/original/file-20260617-57-lo9ets.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a> <figcaption> <span class="caption">The Artemis II mission recently returned astronauts to the Moon for the first time in more than 50 years.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/blogs/missions/2026/04/08/artemis-ii-flight-day-8-crew-conducts-key-tests-on-return-to-earth/">Nasa</a></span> </figcaption> </figure>
<p>Despite this globalisation of space, only three countries are currently able to send humans into space using their own rockets: the US, Russia and China. This is largely a reflection of the fact that spaceflight gets much harder when people are involved, because they need continuous supplies of food, water, heat and air.</p>
<p>Space is an unforgiving environment, so there is absolutely no margin for error. There’s limited scope for backup or rescue, and so everything needs to be tested and tested again.</p>
<p>That’s part of the reason China is on track to catch up with the US and Russia in terms of achievements in space, despite starting decades later. As of 2021 they operate a modular, permanently crewed space station called Tiangong. While not as large as the International Space Station, there is plenty of scope for expansion.</p>
<p>The very successful <a href="https://www.spacecentre.co.uk/news/space-now-blog/chinese-lunar-exploration-program/">Chang'e lunar programme</a> has returned samples from the Moon’s far side, deployed relay satellites to provide more reliable communications, and explored the lunar terrain with rovers. It’s due to these successes that China, partnering with Russia, is the main competition for the United States in Moon race 2.0.</p>
<figure> <iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9vB52VKQREE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe> <figcaption><span class="caption">China has been developing a lunar landing vehicle called Lanyue (CCTV Video News Agency).</span></figcaption> </figure>
<p>So how should we expect this lunar contest to unfold? The US-led effort has a medium-term goal of establishing a permanent human base at the south pole. These lunar outposts would probably operate in a similar way to the International Space Station, and the research bases in the Antarctic, staffed by rotating crews. </p>
<p>Nasa is using the Orion spacecraft to carry astronauts from Earth to our closest celestial neighbour. But they will need a separate vehicle to land. These landers do not yet exist in final form. Two companies, Blue Origin and SpaceX, are competing to develop separate landing craft. An important test will take place next year: for <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-iii/">Nasa’s Artemis III mission</a>, an Orion capsule will attempt to dock with one or both landers in low Earth orbit.</p>
<p>Over the next few years a fleet of robotic craft will also send experiments, deliver cargo and use drones and rovers to scout landing sites and locations for lunar outposts. Like the lunar lander, many of these missions will be led by private industry.</p>
<figure class="align-center "> <img alt="Moon" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/742392/original/file-20260617-57-ry4you.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2048%2C1152&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/742392/original/file-20260617-57-ry4you.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/742392/original/file-20260617-57-ry4you.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/742392/original/file-20260617-57-ry4you.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/742392/original/file-20260617-57-ry4you.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/742392/original/file-20260617-57-ry4you.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/742392/original/file-20260617-57-ry4you.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"> <figcaption> <span class="caption">Lunar bases may operate in a similar way to outposts in the Antarctic, accessible within a few days’ travel time from Earth.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasa2explore/55193178333/in/album-72177720307234654">Nasa</a></span> </figcaption> </figure>
<p>But the lunar south pole is a challenging place for astronauts to operate. The ice deposits are at the bottom of craters that never see sunlight, where temperatures are more than 200 degrees below zero. There are mountaintops near the pole that are almost always visible from Earth, but relay satellites in lunar orbit are needed to help with communications when they do drop over the horizon. </p>
<p>The Sun also rises to just a few degrees above the horizon, and is sometimes below it for days at a time – plunging some locations into darkness. The low temperatures require heating units for humans and equipment alike. But, with inconsistent sunlight to generate solar power, other energy sources, such as nuclear fission, will be needed to keep the batteries charged.</p>
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